Oro Valley Real Estate Statistics May 2007


The Statistics for May 2007 are in from the Tucson MLS. The numbers are very interesting especially when we show them over the period of the past three months. Our statistics are pulled from the NW area report of the Tucson MLS Statistics Report.

Not all of the homes in the NW area are in Oro Valley, but all of Oro Valley is in the NW area so it is the closest we can get to an actual report for Oro Valley.

Description

Mar 07

Apr 07

May 07

Number of Sold Units

303

316

323

YTD Sold Listings

786

1102

1457

Average Days on Market

69

73

67

Active Listings

2682

2668

2617

New Listings

690

783

791

Average Sale Price

$306,963

$318,905

$340,820

Absorption Rate

8.85 mo.

8.44 mo.

8.10 mo.

Number of Units Sold In the past three months we have seen a steady increase in the number of units sold each month. Granted not a huge increase each month but a steady increase none the less.

YTD Sold Listings are being reported for May at 1457. Yes, I know the numbers don’t add up. Yes, I know they should, but it never seems to bother the Tucson MLS that the numbers don’t add up from month to month. The explanation is that some numbers come in after the reporting is done each month so there will be slight discrepancies.

Active Listings have decreased for the Oro Valley area each month. This doesn’t reflect a big change, but it does show a steady trend downward, while Number of Units sold is a steady trend upward; this is a good trend to see in the Oro Valley market at this time.

New Listings are increasing steadily, but this isn’t a concern since the Units sold is increasing and there seem to be an offsetting of this number of new listings in the absorption rate.

Average Sale Price is the biggest surprise in the numbers this month. Not only are more homes being sold but the average sale price has jumped by $33,858 in 2 months. This reflects a pretty large increase in the average especially given the state of the Real Estate Market overall.

Absorption Rate is something we just started tracking for our analysis of the Tucson Real Estate Market and we are adding it here as well. If you are not familiar with the term it is a formula taking the total number of homes on the market, dividing by the number of homes sold during the month with the end result being the number of months it would take to absorb the number of homes on the market. This is a much better way of determining the state of the market over the usual analysis using Days On Market.

Tucson Absorption Rates vs Days On Market is a more in-depth look at absorption rates as a market indicator.

Average Sale Price by Number of Bedrooms

I thought it would be interesting to look at a breakdown of the Average Sale Price since it is indicating a rather healthy increase over the last couple of months. The table below breaks down the Average Sale Price by bedrooms in a home.

Month 0-2 Br 3 Br 4 Br 5+ Br All Br
           
March
$262,446
$275,427
$386,798
$733,111
$306,963
April
$277,228
$303,790
$348,267
$512,482
$318,905
May
$269,700
$319,839
$411,737
$481,655
$340,820

The 3 bedroom homes are the ones showing the steadiest price increases during this period while the 5+ bedrooms are showing a decrease by $251,456 on average. However, we need to take into consideration there usually aren’t that many 5+ bedroom homes on the market or being sold in a single month so this can be a rather volatile number.

The 2 bedroom homes had small pike in March coming back down to a level slightly above the March number for May. The 4 bedroom homes saw a dip in April with a bounce back in May of almost $25,000 over March’s average.

Three bedroom homes are the biggest in demand and show the steadiest growth in Average Sale Price, helping the overall average sale price to increase during this time period.

Real Estate and The News

So what is all this you keep reading about in the papers about the falling Real Estate Market and home values. Many of us are not aware that there is no single Real Estate Market. For example:

  • Residential Real Estate Market
  • Commercial Real Estate Market
  • Residential New Construction
  • Residential Resale

These are just a few examples of different areas of the real estate market. Then we have to take into consideration is what we are reading in the paper about the local housing market or the national housing market.

The headline “New Home Sales Decline for the 5th month in a row” might lead you to believe the real estate market is in trouble or a slump, but this is about new home sales, new construction. What about the resale market?

Asking Price vs Sale Price

One of the biggest things we read about are the dropping prices of real estate. When I get asked about how prices are in the market I ask the question, “Are you talking about asking price or sale price?” Asking prices are coming down, they had too, asking prices last year way out ran the selling price leading to a large inventory of homes on the market. Why? because too many homes were asking more for their homes than buyers were willing to pay. Sale prices have continued to show a healthy increase in most areas and anyone that bought their home before the huge run up in prices of 05 and 06 should be able to sell their homes and have a good return on their investment.

Units sold are up, Active Listings are down, and Average Sale Prices are increasing each month reflecting a healthy real estate market overall in Oro Valley.